A neural network based technique for short-term forecasting of anomalous load periods

The paper illustrates a part of the research activity conducted by authors in the field of electric Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures. Previous experiences with basic ANN architectures have shown that, even though these architectures provide results comparable with those obtained by human operators for most normal days, they evidence some accuracy deficiencies when applied to ''anomalous'' load conditions occurring during holidays and long weekends. For these periods a specific procedure based upon a combined (unsupervised/supervised) approach has been proposed. The unsupervised stage provides a preventive classification of the historical load data by means of a Kohonen's Self Organizing Map (SOM) The supervised stage, performing the proper forecasting activity, is obtained by using a multi-layer perceptron with a backpropagation learning algorithm similar to the ones above mentioned. The unconventional use of information deriving from the classification stage permits the proposed procedure to obtain a relevant enhancement of the forecast accuracy for anomalous load situations

A dynamic assessment of instrument interaction and timing alternatives in the EU low-carbon policy mix design

The European Union low-carbon strategy includes a range of complementary policies. Potential interactions between instruments and different timing of their implementation can influence the cost and likelihood of achieving the targets. We test the interactions between the three main pillars of the European Union strategy through a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model (GDynEP) with a time horizon of 2050. Main results are: i) going for the unilateral European Union carbon mitigation target without any complementary technological policy will produce large economic losses; ii) by investing in clean energy technologies (energy efficiency and renewable energy) with a carbon tax revenue recycling mechanism, these losses will decrease substantially; iii) when complementary clean energy technology policies are implemented, the optimal timing of binding targets changes; iv) the higher the public support to clean energy technologies, the larger the economic gains in early adoption of challenging abatement targets. © 2018 Elsevier LtdWe acknowledge financial support received by the EU D.G. Research (research project “CECILIA2050 — Choosing efficient combinations of policy instruments for low-carbon development and innovation to achieve Europ

A Risk-Based Methodology and Tool Combining Threat Analysis and Power System Security Assessment

A thorough investigation of power system security requires the analysis of the vulnerabilities to natural and man-related threats which potentially trigger multiple contingencies. In particular, extreme weather events are becoming more and more frequent due to climate changes and often cause large load disruptions on the system, thus the support for security enhancement gets tricky. Exploiting data coming from forecasting systems in a security assessment environment can help assess the risk of operating power systems subject to the disturbances provoked by the weather event itself. In this context, the paper proposes a security assessment methodology, based on an updated definition of risk suitable for power system risk evaluations. Big data analytics can be useful to get an accurate model for weather-related threats. The relevant software (SW) platform integrates the security assessment methodology with prediction systems which provide short term forecasts of the threats affecting the system. The application results on a real wet snow threat scenario in the Italian High Voltage grid demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security approaches, by complementing the conventional "N - 1" security criterion and exploiting big data to link the security assessment phase to the analysis of incumbent threat

First Estimations of Cosmological Parameters From BOOMERANG

The anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation contains information about the contents and history of the universe. We report new limits on cosmological parameters derived from the angular power spectrum measured in the first Antarctic flight of the BOOMERANG experiment. Within the framework of inflation-motivated adiabatic cold dark matter models, and using only weakly restrictive prior probabilites on the age of the universe and the Hubble expansion parameter $h$, we find that the curvature is consistent with flat and that the primordial fluctuation spectrum is consistent with scale invariant, in agreement with the basic inflation paradigm. We find that the data prefer a baryon density $\Omega_b h^2$ above, though similar to, the estimates from light element abundances and big bang nucleosynthesis. When combined with large scale structure observations, the BOOMERANG data provide clear detections of both dark matter and dark energy contributions to the total energy density $\Omega_{\rm {tot}}$, independent of data from high redshift supernovae.Comment: As submitted to PRD, revised longer version with an additional figur

CMB Analysis of Boomerang & Maxima & the Cosmic Parameters {Omega_tot,Omega_b h^2,Omega_cdm h^2,Omega_Lambda,n_s}

We show how estimates of parameters characterizing inflation-based theories of structure formation localized over the past year when large scale structure (LSS) information from galaxy and cluster surveys was combined with the rapidly developing cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, especially from the recent Boomerang and Maxima balloon experiments. All current CMB data plus a relatively weak prior probability on the Hubble constant, age and LSS points to little mean curvature (Omega_{tot} = 1.08\pm 0.06) and nearly scale invariant initial fluctuations (n_s =1.03\pm 0.08), both predictions of (non-baroque) inflation theory. We emphasize the role that degeneracy among parameters in the L_{pk} = 212\pm 7 position of the (first acoustic) peak plays in defining the $\Omega_{tot}$ range upon marginalization over other variables. Though the CDM density is in the expected range (\Omega_{cdm}h^2=0.17\pm 0.02), the baryon density Omega_bh^2=0.030\pm 0.005 is somewhat above the independent 0.019\pm 0.002 nucleosynthesis estimate. CMB+LSS gives independent evidence for dark energy (Omega_\Lambda=0.66\pm 0.06) at the same level as from supernova (SN1) observations, with a phenomenological quintessence equation of state limited by SN1+CMB+LSS to w_Q<-0.7 cf. the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. IAU Symposium 201 (PASP), CITA-2000-6

The Quintessential CMB, Past & Future

The past, present and future of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy research is discussed, with emphasis on the Boomerang and Maxima balloon experiments. These data are combined with large scale structure (LSS) information and high redshift supernova (SN1) observations to explore the inflation-based cosmic structure formation paradigm. Here we primarily focus on a simplified inflation parameter set, {omega_b,omega_{cdm},Omega_{tot}, Omega_Q,w_Q, n_s,tau_C, sigma_8}. After marginalizing over the other cosmic and experimental variables, we find the current CMB+LSS+SN1 data gives Omega_{tot}=1.04\pm 0.05, consistent with (non-baroque) inflation theory. Restricting to Omega_{tot}=1, we find a nearly scale invariant spectrum, n_s =1.03 \pm 0.07. The CDM density, omega_{cdm}=0.17\pm 0.02, is in the expected range, but the baryon density, omega_b=0.030\pm 0.004, is slightly larger than the current nucleosynthesis estimate. Substantial dark energy is inferred, Omega_Q\approx 0.68\pm 0.05, and CMB+LSS Omega_Q values are compatible with the independent SN1 estimates. The dark energy equation of state, parameterized by a quintessence-field pressure-to-density ratio w_Q, is not well determined by CMB+LSS (w_Q<-0.3 at 95%CL), but when combined with SN1 the resulting w_Q<-0.7 limit is quite consistent with the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case. Though forecasts of statistical errors on parameters for current and future experiments are rosy, rooting out systematic errors will define the true progress.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. CAPP-2000 (AIP), CITA-2000-6

Images of the Early Universe from the BOOMERanG experiment

The CMB is the fundamental tool to study the properties of the early universe and of the universe at large scales. In the framework of the Hot Big Bang model, when we look to the CMB we look back in time to the end of the plasma era, at a redshift ~ 1000, when the universe was ~ 50000 times younger, ~ 1000 times hotter and ~ 10^9 times denser than today. The image of the CMB can be used to study the physical processes there, to infer what happened before, and also to study the background geometry of our Universe

Gain-of-function defects of astrocytic Kir4.1 channels in children with autism spectrum disorders and epilepsy

Dysfunction of the inwardly-rectifying potassium channels Kir4.1 (KCNJ10) represents a pathogenic mechanism contributing to Autism-Epilepsy comorbidity. To define the role of Kir4.1 variants in the disorder, we sequenced KCNJ10 in a sample of affected individuals, and performed genotype-phenotype correlations. The effects of mutations on channel activity, protein trafficking, and astrocyte function were investigated in Xenopus laevis oocytes, and in human astrocytoma cell lines. An in vivo model of the disorder was also explored through generation of kcnj10a morphant zebrafish overexpressing the mutated human KCNJ10. We detected germline heterozygous KCNJ10 variants in 19/175 affected children. Epileptic spasms with dysregulated sensory processing represented the main disease phenotype. When investigated on astrocyte-like cells, the p.R18Q mutation exerted a gain-of-function effect by enhancing Kir4.1 membrane expression and current density. Similarly, the p.R348H variant led to gain of channel function through hindrance of pH-dependent current inhibition. The frequent polymorphism p.R271C seemed, instead, to have no obvious functional effects. Our results confirm that variants in KCNJ10 deserve attention in autism-epilepsy, and provide insight into the molecular mechanisms of autism and seizures. Similar to neurons, astrocyte dysfunction may result in abnormal synaptic transmission and electrical discharge, and should be regarded as a possible pharmacological target in autism-epilepsy. Supplementary information accompanies this paper in the files section.peer-reviewe

A Calsequestrin-1 mutation associated with a skeletal muscle disease alters sarcoplasmic Ca2+ release

An autosomal dominant protein aggregate myopathy, characterized by high plasma creatine kinase and calsequestrin-1 (CASQ1) accumulation in skeletal muscle, has been recently associated with a missense mutation in CASQ1 gene. The mutation replaces an evolutionarily-conserved aspartic acid with glycine at position 244 (p.D244G) of CASQ1, the main sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ binding and storage protein localized at the terminal cisternae of skeletal muscle cells. Here, immunocytochemical analysis of myotubes, differentiated from muscle-derived primary myoblasts, shows that sarcoplasmic vacuolar aggregations positive for CASQ1 are significantly larger in CASQ1-mutated cells than control cells. A strong co-immuno staining of both RyR1 and CASQ1 was also noted in the vacuoles of myotubes and muscle biopsies derived from patients. Electrophysiological recordings and sarcoplasmic Ca2+ measurements provide evidence for less Ca2+ release from the SR of mutated myotubes when compared to that of controls. These findings further clarify the pathogenic nature of the p.D244G variant and point out defects in sarcoplasmic Ca2+ homeostasis as a mechanism underlying this human disease, which could be distinctly classified as "CASQ1-couplonopathy".peer-reviewe

Noise estimation in CMB time-streams and fast map-making. Application to the BOOMERanG98 data

We describe here an iterative method for jointly estimating the noise power spectrum from a CMB experiment's time-ordered data, together with the maximum-likelihood map. We test the robustness of this method on simulated Boomerang datasets with realistic noise.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, to appear in proc. of the MPA/ESO/MPA conference "Mining the Sky", Garching, July 31 - August 4 200